Inflation, Tariffs, and That $150 Grocery Run
You don’t need an economist to tell you prices are rising; you feel it in your cart. But lately, there’s another factor adding to the pain: tariffs.
I’m at the checkout at Whole Foods, watching them scan the same groceries I buy every week. As I head out and glance at my receipt, I can’t help doing the math — a year ago, this same bag of food cost about $100. Today, it’s $150.
That’s a 50% jump in twelve months. For context, the official U.S. inflation rate is about 2.9%, and grocery prices are up around 2.7%. So my personal “inflation rate” is way higher — probably because I love avocados. They’re mostly imported from Mexico, where prices have climbed sharply this year. The same goes for olive oil from Spain and Italy, coffee from Colombia, chocolate from West Africa, and wine and cheese from Europe. Even berries, citrus, and seafood often come from abroad.
You’re not imagining it — that’s inflation. Prices rise over time, and every dollar buys a little less. You don’t need an economist to tell you that; you feel it in your cart. But lately, there’s another factor adding to the pain: tariffs.
Tariffs sound like something politicians and trade experts argue about, but they affect all of us. A tariff is simply a tax on imported goods. That includes coffee, olive oil, electronics, clothing, even cars. When tariffs go up, U.S. importers pay more to bring those goods in.
Here’s the million-dollar — maybe trillion-dollar — question: doesn’t the other country pay?
In theory, yes. Tariffs are meant to make foreign goods more expensive so exporting countries feel pressure to lower prices or risk losing business. Sometimes that works. For example, if the U.S. raises tariffs on European cheese or Chinese electronics, those exporters might cut prices to stay competitive.
But in practice, most of the cost lands right here at home. U.S. importers pay the tax when the goods arrive — not the exporting country. Big retailers like Walmart, Target, and Costco can absorb some of that cost for a while, but not forever. Eventually, those higher costs trickle down to us as higher prices.
Now, tariffs aren’t the only reason for inflation. Supply chain issues, labor shortages, and shifting consumer demand all play a role. But tariffs add gas to the fire, especially for imports we rely on every day.
The good news? Inflation and tariffs both come in waves. Just stay aware and make small adjustments that protect your budget while life gets a little more expensive.
Here’s what I’ve been doing myself:
Make dinner at home one extra night a week instead of ordering in. It’s healthier, cheaper, and surprisingly satisfying.
Shop with intention. I check unit prices, skip impulse buys, and stick to my list.
Buy produce that’s in season — it’s fresher, costs less, and supports local farms.
Stop overbuying the avocados. If I’m being honest, I sometimes wind up with expensive fruits and vegetables that spoil before I use them — that’s literally money wasted. Lesson learned.
Do look for coupons and deals. It only takes a couple of extra minutes to scan the store app before checkout, but it does make a difference.
Plan big purchases so I’m not forced to buy at the peak of a price swing.
The goal is to stay flexible and make smart adjustments that fit your priorities. That’s how you protect your budget, fight inflation’s bite, and put yourself in a stronger position for the future — without giving up the things that matter most.
And for now, that’s the simplest explanation of why your bag of groceries — and my sneakers — keep getting more expensive.
Let me know: which everyday items or regular purchases are causing you to do a double-take at checkout?