I was early into my first Nespresso this morning when Jason Zweig’s latest Wall Street Journal column woke me right up. The headline was “Don’t Let Politics Poison Your Portfolio.” Jason, you read my mind. As a veteran financial writer, he has a gift for pointing out human error when it comes to money. With the 2026 midterm elections now less than one week out, Jason’s timing was perfect. His message: “For investors, politics is mental poison.”
Amen. And that made me think of Irene.
Meet Irene
Irene (not her real name, because she’d never speak to me again) is a personal acquaintance. She called to ask questions about finding the ideal financial advisor and wanted to know more about advisor fees, experience, how often she’d hear from them, and how to use my Wealthramp service to connect with a vetted advisor.
But Irene’s real mission was to make sure I knew how she feels about her political views, and let’s just say she’s passionate. And Irene wants to be assured her ideal advisor will vote the way she votes in this upcoming election.
I get it. She’s asking for advice on her life savings. She wants someone who is like-minded on national economic policy. So I told her what I always tell everybody who’s about to make a big money decision based on the political views of the day. I said, gently, “Irene, that’s not a good idea.”
Here’s the thing. If her side loses and she’s sure the economy is about to drive off a cliff, the last thing she needs is an advisor nodding along saying, “Oh, it’s bad. Really bad.” That’s not an advisor. That’s a cable news panel charging you a fee to agree with you.
Irene, you want the advisor who says, “Okay. Deep breath. Let’s look at what’s actually in your plan.” You want the advisor who might be as blue or as red as you but he’ll give you the best advice based on the financial markets, which by the way, don’t give two hoots which party wins.
Turns Out We’re All a Little Like Irene
Before we get smug, Zweig points to a study that should humble every one of us. Researchers asked more than 12,000 Americans, over ten years, whether they thought stocks would go up. When their party held the White House the forecast was all sunshine. When the other side won, it was gloom and doom. Republicans and Democrats flipped the minute the presidency changed hands.
And the most financially savvy Americans? They were worse. Apparently being good with numbers just makes you better at building a spreadsheet for your emotions.
It’s not just talk, either. After 2016, MIT economists tracked millions of real portfolios. One side loaded up on stocks, the other ran for cover. Stocks went on to do fine under Trump and fine under Biden. Whoever bailed because their team lost got a two-for-one deal: a bad election night and a smaller nest egg.
Midterms: Grumpy Before, Generous After
Midterm years are the market’s moody phase. Capital Group found stocks average about 4.7% in midterm years, versus 9.5% in other years.
But since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up in the 12 months after every single midterm. All 19 of them. The average gain has been about 16.6%. And it wasn’t about one party winning, but more about ending the suspense.
(Honest fine print: it’s a pattern, it’s not a promise. There were losing years before 1950, and plenty of small crises along the way.)
Vanguard even checked every combination of White House and Congress. There was no reliable winner. The stock market may be the most bipartisan thing left in America!
What “Doing Something” Really Costs
Morningstar says funds earned 9.9% a year over the last decade, but the people who owned them earned 8.7%. That gap? That’s us. Buying high, selling low, being gloriously human.
And here’s the one I’d tape to the fridge: $10,000 in the S&P 500 twenty years ago is worth about $82,300 today. Miss just the 10 best days and you’d have roughly $35,700. Most of those best days showed up within two weeks of the worst ones, right when everybody was hiding under the covers.
John Bogle, who joined me often on MoneyTrack, had the perfect line for moments like this: “Don’t do something. Just stand there!” That’s probably my favorite Bogle quote.
Your Election-Week Survival Kit
Vote. Proudly, whichever way you like.
Before you touch your investments, ask yourself: Would I make this move if the other side had won? If the answer changes, that’s not a strategy. That’s a mood.
Turn off your investing app alerts for the next two weeks. Your blood pressure will drop.
Choose an advisor for their expertise, experience, communication style, fee arrangement, and their fiduciary duty—not their bumper sticker.
That’s the whole reason I built Wealthramp, and I’m siding with your money! If you and your advisor don’t see perfectly eye to eye on politics, even better. You get a second opinion for free.
Irene, if you’re reading this: I hope you found a great advisor. And I hope you never asked how they voted.
P.S. Check out the latest video in my “Decoding Financial Advisors” series. It’s all about how to get your money’s worth from working with a qualified advisor.